How to check a client's market size before you sign them
Count how many people a client can actually reach, for free, and work out how long that list will last.
The worst time to learn a market is too small is three months into a retainer. By then you've emailed most of it, and the client wants to know why replies are drying up.
You can check this before you sign anyone. Searching in ContactYard is free, so sizing a market costs nothing but a few minutes.
A rule of thumb to start with
Many outbound agencies look for two things: a market of about 100,000 reachable people or more, and customers worth around $10,000 a year or more. These aren't laws. They're a way to ask whether a campaign can pay for itself and keep running.
Smaller markets can still work, especially when each customer is worth a lot. You just burn through them faster, so the list needs more care.
Step 1: Turn the client's ideal customer into filters
Ask who they sell to, then write it as job titles, company size, location and industry. The onboarding questions template has the questions to use.
Step 2: Run the search and read the total
Click Search contacts and read the count above the results. Every contact in a ContactYard search has an email on file, so the total is people you could actually email.
Step 3: Try three versions
Run a tight search, a medium one and a wide one. Write down all three totals. The gap between them shows how much the client's targeting matters.
| Version | Filters | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Tight | Exact titles, 51 to 250 employees, one country | 2,900 |
| Medium | Exact titles, 21 to 500 employees, two countries | 11,400 |
| Wide | Related titles, 21 to 1,000 employees, five countries | 41,000 |
These numbers are only an example. Yours will differ.
Step 4: Check the quality of the wide version
A big number is worthless if half of it is wrong. Read 25 random results from the wide search and count how many you'd be happy to email. If it's fewer than 20, use the medium total as your honest market size.
Step 5: Work out how long the list lasts
Divide the market by the number of new contacts you plan to email each month.
| Market size | New contacts per month | Lasts about |
|---|---|---|
| 100,000 | 3,000 | 33 months |
| 20,000 | 3,000 | 7 months |
| 5,000 | 3,000 | under 2 months |
Tip: You can email the same people again after a couple of months, so a small market isn't dead. It does mean the second round needs a genuinely new angle.
Common mistakes
- Quoting the widest number. Clients remember it when results come in lower.
- Counting people you can't sell to. Remove countries or sizes the client can't serve.
- Skipping the sample read. Totals hide wrong titles.
What to do next
Market looks big enough? Check whether the client is a good fit for outbound.
Keep reading
Which clients outbound works for: a fit checklist for agencies
Eight yes-or-no questions to decide whether a prospective client should get a cold email campaign, or a polite no.
How to build data costs into your retainer
Work out what each contact really costs, add a buffer for losses, and price list-building into a retainer you can defend.
How to run a free test campaign to win a client
Offer a small, time-boxed test so a hesitant client sees real replies before paying a retainer. Includes what to agree up front.